news articles 29 march 2005

[Inside Australian Idol]

Callea's Rain stays
Second place has been more than good enough for Australian Idol contestant Anthony Callea
29mar05

AUSTRALIA just can't get enough of Anthony Callea.



Music retailers were yesterday reporting good sales for Callea's newly released self-titled album despite its release on a generally quiet long weekend.

This week the Australian Idol runner-up stayed at the top of the ARIA singles charts with his double A-side disc Rain/Bridge over Troubled Water, so it will be very interesting to see how his first album performs on the charts.

Callea has a busy few months ahead with shopping centre appearances, promotional work and his first solo concerts in May.

Fans can catch him at Highpoint Shopping Centre this Thursday at 6pm, while tickets for his May 20 concert go on sale next Monday.

While Callea's star continues to rise, the Aussie Idol winner Casey Donovan seems to be a magnet for bad luck.

Whispers that record label Sony BMG was ready to cut her loose last month were denied, but things haven't improved for the youngster.

Her second single, What's Going On? dropped to No. 32 on the charts this week and, according to the ARIA website, has not even hit the gold sales mark yet.

More bad signs could be found on her official website, which hasn't been updated with news for more than a month.


www.heraldsun.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5478,12684206%255E28957,00.html

[Inside Australian Idol]

Anthony Callea Hold On To No. 1
by Paul Cashmere
29 March 2005


Anthony Callea

Anthony Callea has maintained the top spot on the Australian chart again this week but his sophomore single 'Rain' has sold far less than his debut effort 'The Prayer'.

After two weeks of sales, Callea's second single has sold around 31,000 units compared to the 180,000 units 'The Prayer' sold in the first two weeks on sale.

Despite not even selling Gold to the public, the single has already been awarded double platinum status.

Other Idol's Guy Sebastian and Casey Donovan have had luke-warm sales with their latest singles. Guy's 'Oh Oh' and Casey's 'What's Going On' have both sold around than 10,000 units since they were released.

www.undercover.com.au/news/2005/mar05/20050329_anthonycallea.html

[Inside Australian Idol]

Strong performance expected from Ten
March 29, 2005 - 6:29PM

Last year's bumper television ratings should help Ten Network Holdings Ltd post a fat interim profit, but analysts want hear how it will fend off a challenge from Seven Network Ltd.

The Australian Idol and Big Brother broadcaster is expected to report a net profit of about $52 million for the six months to February 28, 2005, up from its 2003/04 first half net profit of $43.6 million.

Ten topped the 2004 ratings chart in its key 16-39 age demographic and intends to hang onto that crown despite a very determined early challenge by Seven.

CommSec analyst Olivia Cartwright said the market hoped to hear how Seven's ratings resurgence in 2005 was affecting Ten.

She said CommSec expected Ten to post an interim net profit of $51.7 million on the strength of the robust advertising sector.

Analysts CSFB said this environment, together with Ten's continued momentum in audience and ad ratings share, was expected to be reflected in the broadcaster's interim and full year results.

However CSFB's forecast of $48.4 million interim profit was below the market consensus of $52 million.

"This is due to our expectations for the TV network to report revenue growth of 13 per cent versus the consensus forecast of 15 per cent," CSFB said in a research note.

Analysts will be looking for commentary on the degree to which Ten's strong ratings performance in 2004 had translated into revenue share.

ABN Amro analyst Peter Shorthouse said the market would also be focusing on Ten's programming costs since both Seven and Nine had pointed to high single digit cost growth.

ABN Amro expects Ten's interim net profit to come in at the higher end of the range, at $59.4 million. UBS is tipping $54.9 million.

Also of interest to the market on Wednesday will be any commentary on Ten's new relationship with rival Seven.

Ten has ditched Kerry Packer's Nine Network to team up with Seven to bid for the right to show free-to-air AFL from 2007 to 2011.

Not only is Ten the current AFL rights partner with Nine, it is also one of more than 20 media and sporting organisations facing legal action from Seven later this year over the collapse of its C7 pay TV sports channel.

© 2005 AAP


www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Strong-performance-expected-from-Tens/2005/03/29/1111862384356.html

[Inside Australian Idol]

Ten hangs in there on profits but The X Factor could bring it down
Jane Schulze
March 29, 2005

THE Ten Network's $25 million-plus gamble on The X Factor has failed as a TV ratings driver but will not yet affect Ten's bottom line, with the group expected to reveal a 30 per cent increase in first-half profit tomorrow.

The results for the six months to February 28 only include three weeks of the 2005 ratings season, but media analysts will be keen to learn the degree to which The X Factor will drag on full-year profits.

Ten last year won a fierce bidding war against rivals Nine and Seven for the rights to the program, which Ten hoped would provide an Australian Idol-style ratings boost to the start of its ratings year.

But that has failed and, with the early success of the Seven Network, Ten is just hanging on to its traditional leadership in its preferred demographic of people aged 16 to 39.

So far this year, Ten is leading in that demographic with 29.3 per cent of viewing, but Seven is close behind on 29 per cent. The competitive start to the ratings year has also hurt the price of Ten's shares, which have fallen 21 per cent since hitting a high of $4.43 in January on the back of takeover talk.

Despite Ten's lower ratings, media analysts expect first-half net profit to grow well beyond the $43.6 million achieved at the same time last year, with forecasts ranging between $48 million and $58 million.

Ten's result will benefit from its strong first-quarter performance, when it beat all expectations to lift operating income 33 per cent to $140 million. Analysts now expect that to have grown to about $205 million in the six-month period.

Merrill Lynch media analyst Patrick Russel expects Ten's revenue to have increased 17 per cent to $483 million, with the largest percentage growth to come from the Eye Corp outdoor business, where revenue was forecast to rise 39 per cent to $52.9 million.

He forecasts TV revenue to have grown 14 per cent in the half to $430 million.

Mr Russel said Ten's ratings in its preferred demographic of people aged 16 to 39 were down 1.2 per cent so far this year, but "we expect an improved performance going forward with the return of the AFL, Big Brother in May and Australian Idol 3 (in August)".

"Other programming should also help build Ten's momentum, including Blind Justice, Law & Order: Trial by Jury and The 4400," he said,

"All together, the stability in Ten's core demographic, despite the onslaught from Seven, gives us great confidence leading into 2006."

But media buying group MindShare last week noted that Seven's success had also dented some of Ten's higher-rating 2004 programs such as Law & Order.

After regularly placing in the top 10 weekly programs last year, this year Law & Order now failed to finish in the top 20, MindShare said in a recent report.


www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12683353%255E7582,00.html